Desarrollo de técnicas de asimilación de datos por ensambles para el pronóstico de dispersión de ceniza volcánica

Abstract

Numerical ash dispersion forecasts are important tools for decision making in order to guarantee flight safety. The main source of uncertainty these forecasts comes from the source term (e.g., column height, mass flow rate, total grain size distribution, among others). In this work, we implement and evaluate a data assimilation system coupled to the FALL3D ash dispersion model for the simultaneous estimation of ash distribution and the characteristics of the source term. These results promise a considerable reduction in ash mass loading and the three dimensional concentration errors.

Numerical ash dispersion forecasts are important tools for decision making in order to guarantee flight safety. The main source of uncertainty these forecasts comes from the source term (e.g., column height, mass flow rate, total grain size distribution, among others). In this work, we implement and evaluate a data assimilation system coupled to the FALL3D ash dispersion model for the simultaneous estimation of ash distribution and the characteristics of the source term. These results promise a considerable reduction in ash mass loading and the three dimensional concentration errors.